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American Idol odds: Crystal Bowersox 40%, Lee DeWyze 35%

May 4, 2010

Who’s going home from American Idol tonight? Who among the remaining four will win? After their performances on Frank Sinatra night, here’s an update of our best level-leaded attempt to handicap the field:

Crystal Bowersox: 40% – With the judges having now turned rather thoroughly against her for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, this is the first time in a month that her odds of winning are less than 50-50.

Working in her favor: voters weren’t fazed last week when the judges panned Crystal’s performance, and may well be immune to their criticism of her at this point.

Working against her: has any contestant seen the judges turn so negative this late in the competition and still pulled it out?

Lee DeWyze: 35% – The only other contestant to have a better than one-in-five shot at it.

Working in his favor: Kara DioGuardi suddenly seems insistent on convincing him that he’s going to win. He’s now the judges’ darling.

Working against him: Will voters cynically view the judges’s sudden shift in tone as little more than a late-season ratings ploy?

Michael Lynche: 15% – His comfortable performance last night seemed to substantially increase his still-slight odds of winning.

Working in his favor: Randy Jackson is suddenly in love with him.

Working against him: Ryan Seacrest just can’t stop reminding voters that they did already try to kick him off the show a month ago.

Aaron Kelly: 8% – He’s not going to win, but he’s not going home tonight either.

Working in his favor: His fairly mature Sinatra performance may have made voters forget that he’s still in high school.

Working against him: None of the judges told him that he could win last night.

Casey James: 2% – His uncomfortable performance last night was painful to watch, and was perhaps the best demonstration in the show’s nine year history that “ability to cover a Sinatra song” doesn’t equate with “potential to become a pop star.”

Working against him: Pretty much everything, at this point. Simon even joked about Casey having free time by this time next week. Only way he stays is if voters are able to completely look past his Sinatra performance and keep him around based on overall potential.

Working in his favor: He’ll do fine with his debut album. And it sounds like he’s already got a new gig lined up for next week.

Your turn: How do you see tonight and the next four episodes playing out? Set aside your own personal favorite for a moment – how do you rank the odds of each of the remaining five winning?

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